Update from Thomas Lubari Following Visit to Sth Sudan 

Introduction

My trip to Juba covered Thursday 11th May through 14th May 2017. Juba unlike before has many businesses and organizations not operative. Many nationals who can afford to shift their families to foreign countries and cities have done so with their families now living in Nairobi in Kenya, Kampala in Uganda and Khartoum in Sudan. The people are frustrated and traumatized by the continuous increase of prices and threat of an unpredictable future as regards to the insecurity in surrounding areas although Juba itself seems secure.

The local population continues to struggle to survive in the midst of poverty with workers unable to balance their salary to meet the market demands marked by daily increase of prices. Salaries are being delayed up to three months while families starve. It is difficult to survive on a salary especially with the unpredictable daily increase of food prices. Businesses that are well stocked survive the price changes unlike poorly stocked ones.

The Current Situation on the Ground

The only loan members that can do business safely are those few that have businesses that are not easily affected by the increase of prices or inflation. A well stocked stall or a boda boda business will not be as easily affected as a seller of bans who sells at a usual price and while seeking to buy a bag of flour to prepare for the next day finds the price of the commodity tripled therefore is rendered helpless and put out of business or reduced to one third or half of the business size whereas a well stocked business will have stock value increasing while in the shop or stall.

The current economic situation is very bad. People are merely surviving while those working with international agencies are enjoying life since the inflation favours them as they earn in hard currency. Most families hardly can afford one meal a day. The situation demands for humanitarian intervention in terms of medical, food and education aid.

Those who cannot endure often find their way to the refugee camps in Uganda. A few are taking advantage of the situation especially the powerful business people and those who are well placed in sensitive offices. The worst affected are those who had returned home from Khartoum during the cessation and could not retain their jobs while in Juba. Their families are suffering greatly. Generally there is great suffering among the people.

The church's response to the situation is prayer towards peace and encouragement of the people to hold on to God who alone can bring an everlasting peace. However, a few church leaders are represented in the government's peace deals with the rebels.

Church leaders appreciate development efforts such as the micro-loan programme. They wish that the programme be enlarged to benefit many since with the current situation more people are suffering compared to when there was no war, and therefore would have their lives improved through the micro-loan programme.

The Current Loans

The members are making a living from their current businesses especially those who have comparably better businesses and stock size such as food, charcoal, and restaurants as businesses that cannot easily be affected by the inflation. Failed businesses include clothes, bans (prepared each day) and small eating places.

If more funds are put and administered rightly into the right business such as a motorcycle business or vegetable gardening, particularly door gardening which can be harvested in three weeks to 8 weeks, then these business will succeed. Door gardening from an urban farming perspective should be encouraged and members could get small loans for buying of water and seeds for the gardens. Instead of sweeping compounds, they could be designed beautifully and planted with low size vegetables such as kale, onions, tomatoes, cabbages, spinach, jews mellow, carrots etc.

Other possibilities include providing skills training on site for women in areas of hair dressing and cookery so they can create their own businesses like hair saloons and cake making for weddings which can be made on order - this can range from $100-$300 and above. This would be a big achievement.

People have a loan of $150-$400 which gets affected by inflation and reduced to even 30% of the actual loan size. The exception is motorcycle riders/boda boda who are not affected apart from  fuel which sometimes is affected as fuel is often sold with limits, say a full tank, and by the time it is finished there is no more at the fuel stations and on the black market it is sold at five times the normal market price. This is the greatest challenge of motorcycle riders. However, once they seek as a body of riders for a particular quantity per motorcycle they may get 20 litres or more to get them through for the next deliveries of fuel. 

There are about 56 active members are in the programme now. About ten have either left the country or are defaulters. While the number had reached to 80 about 23 in total left the loan or were put off due to delays in payment or completely no payment. At least four have left the country and abandoned their loans.

In Yei out of 25 members only 3-4 members are internally displaced in the Yei government area with the majority 14 members scattered in the villages (internally displaced on the rebel side) and at least 5-6 displaced in Koboko and different refugee camps in Uganda (Bweyale and Bidibidi) with one displaced in Kampala, a refugee depending on her daughter who called her.

There was about 80,000 SSP available in the peaceful year before the onset of the instability and this was given out at the rate of 360SSP-560SSP to US$100, i.e. about US$10,000-$20,000. However, with the inflation this has dropped tremendously to less than $500 at the current rate of $100 to 15,000SSP.

This means the loan programme is failing if we continue funding food, shop or charcoal businesses because every time there is inflation the pound suffers. We will need to invest in motorcycles or encourage tax owners to loan funds for fuel. The motorcycles and taxis are not affected by the inflation. Motorcyles easily encourage regular remittance since motorcycles are a favoured and quick means of transport in times of traffic jam.

Personal Stories

Rhoda Festo

Rhoda Festo started with a loan of 500SSP (at that time was US$150) and has increased her loan size to $400, by opening a restaurant and now has opened an additional business of a kiosk. The current way of living is more focused on food and shop businesses as because of the current situation people are more concerned about food and immediate domestic needs rather than luxury things like buying clothes.

More funds would help boost her businesses as customers are attracted to kiosks or shops that are stocked with essential commodities and day to day consumer goods. Restaurants and shops selling essential commodities are better than other businesses. 

Her current loan size is 3,000SSP which was about $400 according to the last time of disbursement. When valued at the current inflation rate it is 60,000SSP because it has been highly devalued.The loan group leaders are fairly fulfilling their roles because they are not enforcing the regulars pertaining to debt collection.

Rhoda says "the loan has helped me stock my shop and made savings, medical bills, food and family needs. Accessing more funds would help stock the shop and support the restaurant."

Her biggest concerns are the continuous increase of food prices for instance 50kg of food grains has risen to 10,000 SSP since it is the staple food. "I have many plans to establish" says Rhoda. $400-$500 when exchanged will bring enough stock and will improve profit. Stocking the shop needs enough capital.

Elizabeth Gadia

Elizabeth works as a loan officer and administers the programme in Juba. There is great demand for food and domestic merchandise. The economic situation is worsening but the loan programme is safe and the current members can do business. However the loan programme requires more funds to cope up with the increasing prices.

"I'm making a living from the loan business and am running a boda boda business. More funds would boost the boda boda business. Boda boda is doing well when there is fuel. Fuel scarcity makes it difficult. My personal loan size is 3,000-5,000SSP (about US$500) which has been affected by the devaluation of the South Sudanese pound."

Margaret Amuna

Her business is safe but there is high inflation. She makes her living from selling mixed goods that include foodstuffs, charcoal etc. She has a shop and sews bedsheets however this is not adequate. An increase between $500-$600 would boost her business stock with more food stuffs and charcoal. 

Her current loan size is 5000SSP which was between US$400- $600 before inflation but with inflation is equivalent of $300 as at May 2017. She prays that God will bless this project because it has helped many poor to live. She is seeing a bright future because she no longer begs or asks for help from someone else.

She feels the loan programme can be successful in the current situation because she started with 200SSP previously ($50) and now has reached to 4,000SSP. She started with knitting and with four bags of charcoal but now can bring 20 bags at a time. She has plans to educate her children at university and even buy a van to transport her merchandise.